Education2026-08-20• 9 min
69% accuracy — is that good? The break-even rate explained
Why a hit rate on its own means nothing, how to work out the break-even rate at a given average price, and what ROI actually shows. Based on 271 settled bets.
BLOG
Articles on mathematical predictions, betting strategy and analytics
Advanced Analysis2026-08-20• 8 min
Which market actually profits: 271 bets broken down by type
Under, over, double chance, both teams to score — comparing real returns by market on our own record, with break-even rates and an honest look at small samples.
Transparency2026-08-20• 7 min
Why we publish our losses — and what honest statistics look like
How tipping channels manufacture the appearance of success, what our month-by-month record shows, and why we left the drop from +26% to +9% in plain sight.
Education2026-08-01• 18 min
What Is a Value Bet and How to Find One — Complete 2026 Guide
A clear breakdown of value betting: the formula, real match examples, why bookmakers misprice events, and how to turn that into long-term profit.
Education2026-08-02• 20 min
The Poisson Model for Football Predictions — From Theory to Practice
How the Poisson distribution is used to predict football matches: the probability matrix, model corrections and practical worked examples.
Education2026-08-03• 18 min
The Kelly Criterion — Optimal Stake Sizing for Profitable Betting
The Kelly Criterion for optimal stake sizing: fractional Kelly, bankroll protection levels, worked examples and the psychology of discipline.
Education2026-08-04• 16 min
What Is Edge in Betting — Your Mathematical Advantage Over the Bookmaker
Edge is the key metric in professional betting. How to calculate it, what counts as a good edge, and why there is no long-term profit without it.
Education2026-08-05• 18 min
How to Calculate the Probability of a Football Match Outcome — Step by Step
A step-by-step algorithm for calculating probabilities: collecting data, computing expected goals, building the probability matrix and deriving every market.
Education2026-08-06• 16 min
Over/Under 2.5 — A Betting Strategy Built on a Mathematical Model
A full breakdown of totals betting: how to calculate Under/Over 2.5 probability, which leagues and teams suit it best, and where to find value.
Education2026-08-07• 14 min
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) — Analysis Strategy and the Poisson Calculation
How to calculate the probability that both teams score: formulas, the factors that matter, the best leagues for BTTS and practical examples.
League Review2026-08-08• 16 min
Premier League 2025/26 — Goal Stats, Over/Under Trends and Best Bets
A statistical review of the Premier League: average goals by team, Over/Under trends, home advantage and the best teams for totals betting.
League Review2026-08-09• 15 min
La Liga 2025/26 — Season Analysis, Statistics and Betting Trends
A full analysis of the Spanish league: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético. Goal statistics, tactical trends and the best value bets.
League Review2026-08-10• 15 min
Bundesliga 2025/26 — Goal Statistics and a Betting Strategy for German Football
The Bundesliga is Europe's highest-scoring league. Analysis of the average total, BTTS statistics, home advantage and the best value bets.
League Review2026-08-11• 15 min
Serie A 2025/26 — Season Review, Statistics and Italian Football Trends
An analysis of the Italian league: Inter, Milan, Juventus, Napoli. Tactical football, Under/Over statistics and the best value bets.
League Review2026-08-12• 14 min
Ligue 1 2025/26 — Analysis of French Football and a Betting Strategy
A review of the French league: PSG's dominance, goal statistics, Under/Over trends and the best value bets in Ligue 1.
League Review2026-08-13• 16 min
Russian Premier League 2025/26 — Stats and Betting Analysis
A full review of the Russian Premier League: Zenit, Spartak, CSKA, Krasnodar. Goal statistics, home advantage, the winter break and value bets.
League Review2026-08-14• 14 min
Turkish Süper Lig 2025/26 — Review, Statistics and Betting Analysis
Turkish football: Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe, Beşiktaş, Trabzonspor. Home advantage, goal statistics and a betting strategy.
Comparison2026-08-15• 16 min
Mathematical Predictions vs Expert Opinions — An Objective Comparison
Who is more accurate: a statistical model or an experienced expert? A comparison of the approaches, cognitive biases, and why the model wins over a sample.
Strategy2026-08-16• 14 min
Top 5 Football Betting Mistakes — How to Avoid Them and Protect Your Bankroll
The most common beginner mistakes: betting without a calculation, ignoring the margin, emotional decisions. Practical fixes for each.
Strategy2026-08-17• 14 min
How to Choose a Betting Site in 2026 — A Beginner's Guide
How to pick a betting site: licensing and regulation, odds margin, payout speed, market depth and responsible-gambling tools. Practical criteria.
Strategy2026-08-18• 15 min
Home Advantage in Football — Stats Across 7 Leagues and Its Betting Impact
How home field affects results: statistics across seven leagues, the driving factors, and how a mathematical model accounts for home advantage.
Advanced Analysis2026-08-19• 16 min
Expected Goals (xG) — What It Is, How It Works and Why It Matters for Betting
A full explanation of the xG metric: how it's calculated, how it differs from a Poisson model, and how to use it for sharper predictions.
Advanced Analysis2026-08-19• 15 min
Implied Probability — How to Read Betting Odds and Find Value
How to convert odds to probability, what the bookmaker margin is, how to find the "fair" price and spot a value bet.