Both Teams to Score (BTTS) — Analysis Strategy and the Poisson Calculation
What the "Both Teams to Score" (BTTS) Bet Is
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) is a wager that both sides find the net at least once. The final score doesn't matter — 1-1, 3-2 or 4-1 — as long as both teams score. The "BTTS No" option wins when at least one team fails to score (0-0, 1-0, 3-0 and so on).
For a Poisson model, the BTTS calculation is simple and elegant. P(BTTS Yes) = (1 - P(home = 0)) × (1 - P(away = 0)). That's the probability the home team scores at least once, multiplied by the same probability for the away team.
Formula and Worked Example
By our model, P(0 goals) is computed mathematically, so P(at least 1 goal) = 100% minus P(0). For a match with home xG = 1.8 and away xG = 1.2: P(home scores) = 83.5%, P(away scores) = 69.9%, P(BTTS Yes) = 58.4%.
If the book offers 1.80 on BTTS Yes (implied 55.6%), then edge = (0.584 × 1.80) - 1 = +5.1%. That clears our 5% threshold, but the edge is small — the stake will be minimal via the Kelly Criterion.
The reverse: home xG = 0.7, away xG = 0.5. P(BTTS Yes) = 19.8%. This is a match of two weak attacks; BTTS is highly unlikely. If the book offers 4.00 on BTTS Yes (implied 25%), the edge is negative — no bet.
Key Factors for BTTS
Attacking output of both sides — high xG for both raises BTTS. Defensive frailties — high average goals conceded. Style of play — open, attacking teams feature more often in matches where both score. Home advantage — teams play more aggressively at home.
Clean-sheet statistics are critical. If the home team keeps a clean sheet in 40% of home games, that sharply lowers BTTS. If the away team fails to score in 50% of away games, likewise. Both are already reflected in xG, but an extra check helps.
Best Leagues for BTTS
The Bundesliga historically has the highest BTTS rate — 55-58% of matches — thanks to its open style, pressing and high tempo. Serie A is the opposite: tactical football drops BTTS to 45-48%. The Premier League, La Liga and Ligue 1 sit in the 50-53% range. The RPL is around 48-50% — low tempo and a defensive style.
BTTS No — an Underrated Market
BTTS No often offers a better edge than BTTS Yes. The reason: the public loves goals and backs BTTS Yes more often, which shortens BTTS Yes and lengthens BTTS No. Matches with one strong favourite and a weak underdog are ideal for BTTS No: the favourite scores, the underdog doesn't. Final scores of 2-0 and 3-0 are typical.
Practical Recommendations
Use BTTS as a complement to your core strategy (totals, result), not as a standalone market. Watch the clean-sheet stats of both teams. Avoid clear-favourite matches for BTTS Yes — the weaker side often fails to score. Check the edge before every bet. All predictions with BTTS calculations are on the analysis pages and in the Telegram channel.