Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Premier League • 17 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC
MODEL VERDICT
No value found — no bet recommended
The calculated probabilities matched the bookmaker's prices: there is no edge here. The model rates every fixture of the day but publishes a signal in roughly half of them — in the rest a bet makes no sense.
See matches with a signal →1X2
Newcastle
63.0%Draw
16.0%Aston Villa
21.0%Newcastle
Aston Villa
HIGH
Edge: +-6.51%
Analysis
Premier League. A high-scoring match is expected.
### Outcome Probabilities
- Newcastle Win — 63%
- Draw — 16%
- Aston Villa Win — 21%
- Over 2.5 — 82%
- BTTS Yes — 69%
### Team Form
- Newcastle at home: 53%
- Aston Villa away: 33%
### Head-to-Head
In the last 10 meetings: 5 Newcastle wins, 2 draws, 3 Aston Villa wins.
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