Derby vs Birmingham
Championship • 12 Sep 2026 • 11:30 UTC
MODEL VERDICT
No value found — no bet recommended
The calculated probabilities matched the bookmaker's prices: there is no edge here. The model rates every fixture of the day but publishes a signal in roughly half of them — in the rest a bet makes no sense.
See matches with a signal →1X2
Derby
5.0%Draw
15.0%Birmingham
80.0%Derby
Birmingham
LOW
Edge: +3.11%
Analysis
Championship. A match with average scoring is expected.
### Outcome Probabilities
- Derby Win — 5%
- Draw — 14%
- Birmingham Win — 81%
- Over 2.5 — 49%
- BTTS Yes — 28%
### Team Form
- Derby at home: 27%
- Birmingham away: 47%
### Head-to-Head
In the last 10 head-to-head matches: 5 Derby wins, 3 draws, 2 Birmingham wins.
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Get signals first
Every prediction — with exact stake — is published in Telegram before kick-off