Alaves vs Getafe

# FULL ANALYSIS: Alavés — Getafe ## BLOCK 1 — POISSON MODEL ### Step 1 — Data and Fallback All goal metrics = N/A. No home/away or overall statistics available. This is the **first matchday** of the new season — no current-season historical data exists. **FALLBACK:** Using La Liga league averages (top-5 league): - league_avg_home = 1.35 - league_avg_away = 1.10 Without goal statistics, Attack/Defense Strength cannot be calculated — both teams receive neutral strength coefficients = 1.00. **Calculation:** - lambda = 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.35 = **1.35** - mu = 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.10 = **1.10** Range check: lambda = 1.35 , mu = 1.10 --- ### Step 2 — Form All form data = N/A. Form adjustments **are not applied**. --- **Poisson Distribution:** lambda = 1.35: - P(1) = 0.2592 × 1.35 = 0.3499 - P(2) = 0.3499 × 1.35 / 2 = 0.2362 - P(3) = 0.2362 × 1.35 / 3 = 0.1063 - P(4) = 0.1063 × 1.35 / 4 = 0.0359 - P(5) = 0.0359 × 1.35 / 5 = 0.0097 - P(6) = 0.0097 × 1.35 / 6 = 0.0022 mu = 1.10: - P(1) = 0.3329 × 1.10 = 0.3662 - P(2) = 0.3662 × 1.10 / 2 = 0.2014 - P(3) = 0.2014 × 1.10 / 3 = 0.0738 - P(4) = 0.0738 × 1.10 / 4 = 0.0203 - P(5) = 0.0203 × 1.10 / 5 = 0.0045 - P(6) = 0.0045 × 1.10 / 6 = 0.0008 **Matrix (rows = home goals, columns = away goals):** | | G=0 | G=1 | G=2 | G=3 | G=4 | G=5 | G=6 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | **H=0** | 0.08631 | 0.09490 | 0.05220 | 0.01913 | 0.00526 | 0.00116 | 0.00021 | | **H=1** | 0.11653 | 0.12812 | 0.07050 | 0.02585 | 0.00710 | 0.00157 | 0.00028 | | **H=2** | 0.07866 | 0.08647 | 0.04759 | 0.01745 | 0.00479 | 0.00106 | 0.00019 | | **H=3** | 0.03539 | 0.03891 | 0.02141 | 0.00785 | 0.00216 | 0.00048 | 0.00009 | | **H=4** | 0.01194 | 0.01314 | 0.00723 | 0.00265 | 0.00073 | 0.00016 | 0.00003 | | **H=5** | 0.00323 | 0.00355 | 0.00195 | 0.00072 | 0.00020 | 0.00004 | 0.00001 | | **H=6** | 0.00073 | 0.00080 | 0.00044 | 0.00016 | 0.00004 | 0.00001 | 0.00000 | --- ### Step 4 — Probabilities from Matrix **1X2:** Calculated carefully: - H>G: (1,0)=0.11653; (2,0)=0.07866; (2,1)=0.08647; (3,0)=0.03539; (3,1)=0.03891; (3,2)=0.02141; (4,0)=0.01194; (4,1)=0.01314; (4,2)=0.00723; (4,3)=0.00265; (5,0)=0.00323; (5,1)=0.00355; (5,2)=0.00195; (5,3)=0.00072; (5,4)=0.00020; (6,0)=0.00073; (6,1)=0.00080; (6,2)=0.00044; (6,3)=0.00016; (6,4)=0.00004; (6,5)=0.00001 - **P(home) = 0.4252** - **P(away) = 1 - 0.4252 - 0.2706 = 0.3042** Check: 0.4252 + 0.2706 + 0.3042 = 1.0000 **Totals:** - P(total=0) = 0.08631 - P(total=1) = 0.09490 + 0.11653 = 0.21143 - P(total=2) = 0.05220 + 0.12812 + 0.07866 = 0.25898 - P(total=3) = 0.01913 + 0.07050 + 0.08647 + 0.03539 = 0.21149 **BTTS:** **Double Chance:** --- ### Step 5 — Self-Check of Critical Rules - Rule A: 2.45 < 2.5 → Under 2.5 > 50% → 55.67% - Rule D: 42.52 + 27.06 + 30.42 = 100.00% - Rule E: Edge checked below --- ### 1X2: - Raw: 1/2.30=0.4348; 1/2.70=0.3704; 1/3.75=0.2667 - Overround = 0.4348 + 0.3704 + 0.2667 = 1.0719 - no_vig_home = 0.4348 / 1.0719 = **0.4056** - no_vig_draw = 0.3704 / 1.0719 = **0.3456** - no_vig_away = 0.2667 / 1.0719 = **0.2488** ### Total 1.5: - Raw: over=1/1.67=0.5988; under=1/2.15=0.4651; sum=1.0639 - no_vig_over_1.5 = 0.5988/1.0639 = **0.5628** - no_vig_under_1.5 = 0.4651/1.0639 = **0.4372** ### Total 2.5: - Raw: over=1/3.00=0.3333; under=1/1.38=0.7246; sum=1.0579 - no_vig_over_2.5 = 0.3333/1.0579 = **0.3151** - no_vig_under_2.5 = 0.7246/1.0579 = **0.6849** ### Total 3.5: - Raw: over=1/6.25=0.1600; under=1/1.11=0.9009; sum=1.0609 - no_vig_over_3.5 = 0.1600/1.0609 = **0.1508** - no_vig_under_3.5 = 0.9009/1.0609 = **0.8492** ### BTTS: - Raw: yes=1/2.35=0.4255; no=1/1.55=0.6452; sum=1.0707 - no_vig_btts_yes = 0.4255/1.0707 = **0.3974** - no_vig_btts_no = 0.6452/1.0707 = **0.6026** ### Double Chance (calculated from 1X2 no-vig): - P(1X) no_vig = 0.4056 + 0.3456 = **0.7512** - P(X2) no_vig = 0.3456 + 0.2488 = **0.5944** --- ## BLOCK 4 — CONTEXTUAL ADJUSTMENTS - Form: N/A → not applied - H2H: 0 matches → not applied - Clean sheet/BTTS adjustments: N/A - Motivation: first matchday, neutral motivation, rotation unlikely - Injuries: no data available **Conclusion: no adjustments applied. Poisson probabilities = final.** --- ## BLOCK 5 — EDGE CALCULATION ACROSS ALL MARKETS | Market | Model P | No-vig P | Odds | Edge | |---|---|---|---|---| | Home Win | 0.4252 | 0.4056 | 2.30 | 0.4252×2.30-1 = **-0.0220** | | Draw | 0.2706 | 0.3456 | 2.70 | 0.2706×2.70-1 = **-0.2694** | | Away Win | 0.3042 | 0.2488 | 3.75 | 0.3042×3.75-1 = **+0.1408** | | Over 1.5 | 0.7023 | 0.5628 | 1.67 | 0.7023×1.67-1 = **+0.1728** | | Under 1.5 | 0.2977 | 0.4372 | 2.15 | 0.2977×2.15-1 = **-0.3600** | | Over 2.5 | 0.4433 | 0.3151 | 3.00 | 0.4433×3.00-1 = **+0.3299** | | Under 2.5 | 0.5567 | 0.6849 | 1.38 | 0.5567×1.38-1 = **-0.2318** | | Over 3.5 | 0.2318 | 0.1508 | 6.25 | 0.2318×6.25-1 = **+0.4488** | | Under 3.5 | 0.7682 | 0.8492 | 1.11 | 0.7682×1.11-1 = **-0.1473** | | BTTS Yes | 0.4942 | 0.