Genoa vs Como
Serie A • 26 Apr 2026 • 13:00 UTC
MODEL VERDICT
No value found — no bet recommended
The calculated probabilities matched the bookmaker's prices: there is no edge here. The model rates every fixture of the day but publishes a signal in roughly half of them — in the rest a bet makes no sense.
See matches with a signal →1X2
Genoa
33.0%Draw
29.0%Como
38.0%Genoa
Como
LOW
Edge: +-3.2%
Analysis
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## MATCH ANALYSIS
### 1. POISSON MODEL
**Attack/Defense Strength calculation:**
**Expected goals:**
- mu_away = 1.27 × 1.18 × 1.10 = 1.65
**Time-weighted form adjustment:**
Applied form-based correction:
- mu_away adjusted to 1.12
Outcome probabilities from matrix:
Total probabilities:
### 3. NO-VIG ODDS
**1X2 market:**
- No-vig home: 15.6% (vs Poisson 33%)
**Total 2.5:**
- No-vig over: 60.1% (vs model 66%)
- No-vig under: 39.9% (vs model 34%)
### 4. ADJUSTMENTS
**Form:** Genoa 60% vs Como 47% — minimal adjustment
**H2H:** 5 matches show Como dominance (4 draws, 1 Como win)
**Clean sheets:** Como 7 clean sheets away from home out of 16 — strong defence
**Motivation:** Matchday 34, mid-table
### 5. MARKET ANALYSIS
Best Edge figures:
1. **Under 2.5**: +4% Edge
2. **BTTS No**: +1% Edge
3. **Draw**: Edge close to zero
All other markets show negative Edge.
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**NO VALUE BET FOUND**
The market is efficiently priced by bookmakers. The best Edge figure is only +4% on Under 2.5, which is insufficient for a recommendation.
**Reasons for no value:**
- Odds accurately reflect statistical probabilities
- H2H history confirms market expectations
- Como's strong defence is already priced into the line
**Best Edge across all markets:** Under 2.5 (+4%)
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