Pisa vs Genoa
Serie A • 19 Apr 2026 • 16:00 UTC
MODEL VERDICT
No value found — no bet recommended
The calculated probabilities matched the bookmaker's prices: there is no edge here. The model rates every fixture of the day but publishes a signal in roughly half of them — in the rest a bet makes no sense.
See matches with a signal →1X2
Pisa
4.0%Draw
10.0%Genoa
86.0%Pisa
Genoa
LOW
Edge: +0%
Analysis
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## POISSON MODEL
**Base calculation (Serie A: league_avg_home = 1.35, league_avg_away = 1.10):**
**Expected goals:**
- mu_away = 1.00 × 1.09 × 1.10 = 1.20
## CONTEXTUAL ADJUSTMENTS
**Team form:**
- Pisa: 20% (1 win in 5) → -4%
- Genoa: 60% (3 wins in 5) → +3%
**H2H analysis (3 matches):**
Genoa unbeaten: 1 win, 2 draws → +3% to away side
**Failed to score stats:**
- Pisa failed to score at home in 68% of matches (11/16)
- Genoa failed to score away in 27% of matches (4/15)
Extremely low BTTS probability → -3%
- mu_away = 1.10 (stable)
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**NO VALUE BET FOUND**
**Reason:** All odds are marked as N/A — impossible to calculate Edge and identify a value bet.
**Mathematical forecast:**
- Clear favourite: Genoa (86% win probability)
- Extremely low total: Under 2.5 with 92% probability
- BTTS No: 95% probability
**Recommendation:** Wait for odds to become available for value analysis. At typical Serie A odds, potentially interesting markets are:
- Away Win (if odds are above 1.20)
- Under 2.5 (if odds are above 1.10)
- BTTS No (if odds are above 1.06)
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