Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo
RPL • 18 Apr 2026 • 16:30 UTC
MODEL VERDICT
No value found — no bet recommended
The calculated probabilities matched the bookmaker's prices: there is no edge here. The model rates every fixture of the day but publishes a signal in roughly half of them — in the rest a bet makes no sense.
See matches with a signal →1X2
Nizhny Novgorod
18.0%Draw
28.0%Dynamo
54.0%Nizhny Novgorod
Dynamo
LOW
Edge: +0%
Analysis
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## POISSON MODEL CALCULATION
### Expected Goals via Attack/Defense Strength
League averages RPL: league_avg_home = 1.45, league_avg_away = 1.15
mu_away = 1.30 × 1.04 × 1.15 = 1.56
P(away=0)=0.210, P(away=1)=0.327, P(away=2)=0.255, P(away=3)=0.133, P(away=4)=0.052, P(away=5)=0.016, P(away=6)=0.004
### Base probabilities from matrix:
### Contextual adjustments:
**Form:** Home 47% (weak) → -3% to Home Win, Away 67% (good) → +3% to Away Win
**H2H:** 10 matches — Dynamo dominates (6 wins, 4 draws, 0 wins for Nizhny) → +5% to Away Win
- Home Win: 12%
- Draw: 25%
- Away Win: 63%
- Over 2.5: 73%
- BTTS Yes: 48%
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**NO VALUE BET FOUND**
**Reason:** Odds are unavailable for Edge calculation. All current odds are listed as N/A.
**Mathematical forecast:**
The model shows a clear advantage for Dynamo (63% win probability after adjustments). A high-scoring match is expected — the Over 2.5 probability stands at 73%.
**Recommendation:** Wait for odds to become available before conducting a full value bet analysis.
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