Como vs Inter

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ## POISSON MODEL **Attack/Defense Strength Calculation:** **Expected Goals:** - mu_away = 1.64 × 0.64 × 1.10 = 1.15 **Form Adjustment:** - Como: excellent form 87% → +4% - Inter: average form 53% → no change - H2H: Inter dominates (3 wins out of 4) → +5% to Inter win - mu_away = 1.15 × 1.05 = 1.21 (increase for H2H) | Home\Away | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |-----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 0 | 0.119 | 0.144 | 0.087 | 0.035 | 0.011 | 0.003 | 0.001 | | 1 | 0.114 | 0.138 | 0.084 | 0.034 | 0.010 | 0.003 | 0.001 | | 2 | 0.055 | 0.067 | 0.040 | 0.016 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.000 | | 3 | 0.018 | 0.021 | 0.013 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 4 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 5 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | **Final probabilities after adjustment:** **Total sign check:** **Total recalculation:** P(total=0) = 0.119, P(total=1) = 0.258, P(total=2) = 0.224 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ **NO VALUE BET FOUND** All odds are listed as N/A — Edge calculation is not possible. **Model expected values:** - Como wins: 32% - Draw: 29% - Inter wins: 39% - Under 2.5: 60% - BTTS No: 21% **Reasons for no analysis:** Without bookmaker odds it is impossible to identify a value bet. The model shows a closely contested match with a slight edge to Inter due to their head-to-head superiority, but Como are playing at home and in excellent form. Skipping this match until current odds become available.