Lecce vs Atalanta
Serie A • 6 Apr 2026 • 13:00 UTC
✗ PREDICTION LOSTResult: 0:3
All Results →Prediction
Under 2.5
Odds1.8
Edge+9.2%
Stake %2.3%
Confidence★★★★☆ (High)
AI System
Calc. Probability64.7%
Implied55.6%
1X2
Lecce
32.0%Draw
35.0%Atalanta
33.0%Lecce
Atalanta
HIGH
Edge: +9.2%
Analysis
MATCH OF THE DAY
━━ STATISTICS
Form (5 matches): 20% — 53%
Home record: 4W-4D-7L
Away record: 4W-6D-4L
Avg. goals at home: scores 0.70 / concedes 1.30
Avg. goals away: scores 1.10 / concedes 1.00
H2H (10 matches): Lecce 2W — 2D — 6L Atalanta
ADJUSTMENTS
Poor Lecce form (20%): -5% to home attack → λ = 0.49
H2H in Atalanta's favour (6L out of 10): -3% to home win probability
Numerous Lecce injuries: +5% to home defence → μ = 1.23
Total projected goals: 0.49 + 1.23 = 1.72
Poisson matrix recalculation:
λ = 0.91, μ = 0.99
Additional adjustment for injuries and motivation:
Lecce fighting for survival but weakened by injuries
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