Lorient vs Paris FC
Ligue 1 • 5 Apr 2026 • 15:15 UTC
✓ PREDICTION WONResult: 1:1
All Results →Prediction
Under 2.5
Odds1.73
Edge+12.7%
Stake %2.8%
Confidence★★★★☆ (High)
AI System
Calc. Probability73.6%
Implied57.8%
1X2
Lorient
45.0%Draw
32.0%Paris FC
23.0%Lorient
Paris FC
HIGH
Edge: +12.7%
Analysis
MATCH OF THE DAY
━━ STATISTICS
Form (5 matches): 40% — 60%
Home record: 7W-5D-1L
Away record: 3W-6D-5L
Avg. goals at home: scores 2.00 / concedes 1.50
Avg. goals away: scores 1.00 / concedes 1.40
H2H (9 matches): Lorient 6W — 1D — 2L Paris FC
Base Poisson probabilities:
ADJUSTMENTS
Away team injuries: Critical losses in attack (Krasso, Hamel) and defence (7 players) → -30% away attack
Clean sheets: Away side kept 4 clean sheets in 14 away matches (29%) → +5% to Under 2.5
Recalculated after adjustments:
λ = 1.43, μ = 0.67
Final probabilities:
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